The African Climate Foundation (ACF), in partnership with ClimateWorks Foundation, convened a series of forward-looking scenario-planning workshops to explore Africa’s potential futures in a rapidly changing global context. Bringing together ACF experts and external thought leaders, the workshops examined how geopolitical, economic and social transitions between 2025 and 2030 could shape Africa’s path to sustainable transformation. The goal was to identify emerging opportunities and risks, and inform how actors can best align their strategies to support Africa’s priorities. At the heart of the discussion were two fundamental questions: How is Africa positioned in this rapidly changing global landscape, and what does it need to do to secure its place?
Through this framing, participants examined how different configurations of global governance, finance and cooperation could influence Africa’s economic resilience, political agency, and climate ambitions. The exercise was designed not to predict outcomes but to provoke fresh thinking and surface insights that could guide ‘no-regrets’ strategies and resilient pathways across a range of possible futures. Four scenarios were examined, spanning themes from cooperative to fragmented global governance, high-to-low capital flows to Africa and the Global South, capable to weak governance systems, and transformative to extractive economic models.
Across these discussions, participants identified both significant risks and ‘no-regrets’ strategies that hold value across multiple futures. The workshops underscored that Africa’s trajectory will hinge on how the continent positions itself within global transitions, particularly those related to green industrialisation, energy systems and trade realignment. This report distills the central opportunities identified through the scenario-planning series, offering perspectives on how Africa can advance its climate and development goals in an increasingly complex and fast-evolving global environment.
